Nostradamus and Technology Predictions

Posted by burhop | Uncategorized | Thursday 31 December 2009 2:45 pm

oreganostradamus

While the family is shopping or going to the movies, I told my son I was going to hang out at the bookstore and post my predictions for 2010. He thought it was pretty funny that anyone would care what I thought and started calling me “ Nostradamus”. Nothing like family to keep you grounded.

Still, there is some value in making predictions even if you are wrong or no one sees them. For example, I see a lot of overly optimistic posts on things like Google Wave, virtual worlds, social media and so on where people correctly identify the potentials but don’t foresee all the pitfalls. If these people would revisit their statements a year later, they would be much more accurate in the future.

The same goes for many people who often dismiss new technologies as a fad, or as no business value. You don’t get a lot people making predictions about failures but I’d like to see more of this. I’d love to be able to identify the useful curmudgeons from the ones that just hate change.

You can see my predictions for 2009 here and I’ll soon be posting my 2010 predictions.

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