While the family is shopping or going to the movies, I told my son I was going to hang out at the bookstore and post my predictions for 2010. He thought it was pretty funny that anyone would care what I thought and started calling me “ Nostradamus”. Nothing like family to keep you grounded.

Still, there is some value in making predictions even if you are wrong or no one sees them. For example, I see a lot of overly optimistic posts on things like Google Wave, virtual worlds, social media and so on where people correctly identify the potentials but don’t foresee all the pitfalls. If these people would revisit their statements a year later, they would be much more accurate in the future.

The same goes for many people who often dismiss new technologies as a fad, or as no business value. You don’t get a lot people making predictions about failures but I’d like to see more of this. I’d love to be able to identify the useful curmudgeons from the ones that just hate change.

You can see my predictions for 2009 here and I’ll soon be posting my 2010 predictions.

I just got word from @dananLewis that the next Huntsville tweetup will be March 19 at Angel Island Coffee at 6pm.  You can track any discussion about it using the #HSVTweetup tag.

If you have not been to a tweetup before, this is a good place to start.  Angels has free Wifi and good coffee, tea and other drinks.  You can see what happened at that last Angel’s tweetup here.

Heres a link and a map to find them:

View Larger Map

A lot of communities exists not only because of common interest but because its members can help each other out.  You might keep an eye on each other’s house in your neighborhood.  You might work together to support a school.

I like how technology has brought us to the point where we can form communities that are not location based.  I’m involveded with automotive, Second Life, CAD and professional communities on-line. Many of these people I have never met but the sense of community is just the same.

Sometimes these virtual and real life communities overlap. SWGeek is one of my friends in one of my CAD communities. He is involved with Orangewood Children’s Foundation.  It is an interesting story and you can read more about it on his blog post, “Design for the Future” .

So if you have a few bucks or some space on your own blog or just want to retweet his link above, here’s a place for you to do a good deed for the day. You certainly got to like a place that produces guys like Alex.

I like to make predictions. I also like to track my success.  So this year, I’ll put them in my blog and we will see where they go.

2009 will not be the year of Virtual Worlds 

Some might say this was 2007. Certainly it was the year of virtual world realization and hype. The problem is that while we have the technologies in this area, we are just not progressing that fast. Don’t get me wrong.  I think this is the future (OpenSim progress is exciting) its just on a longer path to becoming mainstream.

Noise, Noise, Noise, Noise in Microblogging will be reduced. I’ve gotten a lot out of tools like twitter, yammer, and plurk.  I also have a personality that like to do five things at once.   The grinch-like folks who detest all the who-songs and who-merry making will have a better year with micro-blogging. Oh, and watch for micro-blogging apps showing up in your favorite 3D software.

Everyone jumps on the 3D CAD “direct modeling” band wagon I’m not going to talk much about 3D CAD since this is my industry but one thing you have seen this year is a lot of talk about significantly easier ways to create and modify your designs.  The debate this year was if the new tools are hype or can really compete with the old history based tools.  The debate next year will be on who has the best new technology. Watch for more CAE focus too.

Touch Screens make a comeback – almost  The use of gestures and multi-touch has made for a nice new way to manipulate your software.  It has got to help what you can do with 3D.  Zoom by spreading your fingers?  Great!  Sliding things left or right? Brilliant!  Scratches on your screen?  Ouch.  Working after eating chicken wings? OMG.  Foggy old monitors from months of micro scratches?  Bleh!  Rubber gloves you have to wear to avoid this? Over the top. Don’t throw away your keyboard especially if you have sweaty palms.

3D Glasses  - 

Yes, another retro idea is making a comeback.  It is not the geeky stuff that does this.  Its things like watching your football game in 3D that does it.  Computers still need some CPU power and more interest to do this.  Movie theaters and other places with big screens don’t.  Watch for it but be careful because it will seem like it is jumping out at you!

Making Videos Takes Off-

 OK,it already has with things like Youtube and Vimeo and Jing.   There are just a lot of people out there that WATCH video that don’t MAKE videos. Now we will see more creators.

 Why now?  First, video creation gets easy (no more figuring out codec’s and drivers.)   Second, computers are just faster making video easier. I’m not just talking the computer on your desk, I’m talking the computer in your camera or cell phone.  Third, too many devices (including computers) are coming with video cameras built in.

Want to tell someone how to do something in CAD or Second Life or any other graphical 3D program?  It will be easier to make a video and paste a link than explain in words.

I’m a social media guy. When there is some new technology like Facebook, Twitter, Second Life, Yammer, Brightkite, LinkedIn, whatever, I’m on it.  While I’ve gotten involved in some of this because it is fun and interesting,  it has also helped me with my job.  I’ve made some great connections with fellow employees, customers, and people with similar interest.  It has been very valuable to me.

So if Social Media is so great, we all should be using it, right? I don’t think so.  One problem when you hang out with others using social media (be it twitter, second life or really any group of people with similar interests) you often end up talking about people that just “don’t get it”.  We reinforce each others ideas.  Then you get people who’s job IS social media. It is my perception they will tell you about the advantages and downplay the negatives.

I find it very grounding to talk to people about social media that I don’t know through social media.  My wife and kids (20,18,15) are great… I can’t get them to blog for anything!  When I talk about social media with some of the folks I see by the coffee pot at work, some will just look at me as if asking, “why would I want to do this?”

So as much as I would like to see more people on Twitter or reading my blog, I certainly understand why they are not. Sure, some of them don’t “get it” but I think most of them just don’t need it.  I always try to remember that.